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Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep? Essay Questions
Business Applications Case Study: How Cisco IT Upgraded Its ERP Purchasing Module - Cisco on of electric sheep essay, Cisco. New ERP platform for national service Cisco quote-to-cash business process improves purchasing for customers and partners. At Cisco SystemsÂ®, the Everest project was the final phase of a multiyear series of foundational software releases relating to the move from sheep essay topics, Oracle 10.7 to Oracle 11i software. The previous deployments and enhancements carried out as part of this companywide initiative included: System integration refinements across multiple functional areas. Manufacturing and report project, finance data platform upgrade (Cisco IT case study “ERP Manufacturing and Finance Platform” at http://www.cisco.com/web/about/ciscoitatwork/ business_of_it/erp_manufacturing_and_finance.html) Issue-to-Resolution (I2R) foundation and order configurator software upgrades Service and support system migration (Cisco IT case study “ERP Technical Support” at essay http://www.cisco.com/web/about/ciscoitatwork/business_of_it/ erp_technical_support.html) Service reporting using Oracle 11i capabilities. Service part planning system replacement and update of online service request tool. Oracle iProcurement implementation. Upgrading, merging, and implementing iProcurement for international operations. Application College Course? External collaboration with suppliers, distributors, partners, and customers.
Support for the move to an electronic business model. Do Androids Dream Sheep? Naming this Oracle 11i project was easy, says Laura Coon, the Everest release manager within Cisco IT. The upgrade of our ERP foundational software looked as formidable as an expedition to scale Mt. Everest. With the upgrade to Oracle 11i, we knew that many functional areas within Cisco would have to seriously evaluate and how to an interim, change crucial business processes. The companywide support was phenomenal and this challenge turned into a huge opportunity. Our goal with the Everest project was to end up with a world-class purchasing experience for our customers and partners, and do androids dream of electric sheep, the entire company shared the commitment to this vision. The Everest project, like the other Oracle 11i upgrades and civil, migration efforts, resulted from a combination of driving forces. In response to market changes, Cisco experienced:
Growing recognition of the power of cross-functional collaboration, and internal demand for systems and of electric essay topics, processes that facilitate better interactions. Increasing demand for collaboration with suppliers, distributors, partners, and in pakistan, customers. Opportunities for do androids sheep topics enhancing enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems in support of online business models. Essays? Several internal drivers added momentum to the project. Oracle 10.7 had reached end-of-life status, creating support challenges and introducing escalating cost of ownership across the company. The outdated technology platform slowed the introduction of enhancements and made it difficult to respond to changing business requirements. A growing base of customized software and tools further complicated support and increased complexity within the infrastructure that handled vital corporate business processes. The technical and do androids dream essay topics, business challenges were further complicated by new corporate requirements for Sarbanes Oxley compliance; these collective forces drove an executive-level decision to upgrade the ERP software foundation.
Director for Release Management, Oracle Projects, Cisco IT. The main purpose for the Everest project was to simplify and standardize customer-facing processes and controls. This included order management, pricing, invoicing, tax, and collections - all the functions that rely upon the Oracle-based ERP systems. With the new, more stable, and standardized Oracle 11i foundation, global business processes could be streamlined, application customizations reduced, and out-of-date tools retired. The project goals included addressing the latest requirements for how to an interim Sarbanes Oxley compliance, and improving the outsourcing model by do androids dream essay developing collaborative problem-solving processes that could result in stronger, more productive vendor partnerships. As project planning progressed, it became clear that success would require the development of how to write project cross-functional partnerships for process and policy optimizations. The project definition also included process and system integration requirements to increase productivity and enable corporate growth. Automated compliance and governance solutions were included in do androids dream essay, the Everest project, with the goal of establishing a companywide architecture supporting these critical functions. Understanding and Defining the Scope of the Project. The IT release team focused on meticulous data gathering during the global design review process. The team first determined that the Oracle 11i upgrade would affect 37 business processes, and then identified and analyzed the subprocesses.
Approximately 1000 questions were posed and discussed with relevant teams and departments. Civil Services Essay Book? More than 300 points of feedback were captured during the review process, 122 action items identified and documented, and do androids dream of electric, 11 potential showstoppers raised and civil times book, analyzed. While large in scope, the essay, technical upgrade was more straightforward than the business process changes. Essays? The upgrade would involve: Oracle instances: 2 New Oracle modules: 4 Legacy systems retired: 9 (spanning order management, accounts receivable, and pricing) Reduction in customizations: 35 percent Custom reports eliminated: 400+ Boundary systems: 140+ Developer days (without reports, as of January 2004): 40,000+ (across 500+ work units) Business processes retired (changed to end of life status): 6 Internal Cisco users: 10,000+ users and stakeholders across six business processes, globally Partners and customers: approximately 30,000 Significant change to sheep topics customer interface for technical support organization (changed from text-based to browser-based) Changing foundational systems and processes required continuous evaluation to media in pakistan ensure user acceptance and broad adoption of the new software and procedures. Team building, communication, and training were vital components of the overall project. Before and after diagrams of the Cisco Quote-to-Cash (QTC) software foundations (Figure 1) summarize the extent of the changes. Do Androids Of Electric Sheep Essay Topics? Project success was measured in terms of the smoothness of the overall deployment and the minimization of disruption to the businesses of Cisco and its customers during the actual changeover. National Argumentative Essay? The project achieved success by maintaining focus on priorities, people, and processes. Extensive preparations clearly defined every step of the project -before, during, and after the actual go-live event.
To keep the team unified and the project focused on the goals, priorities were defined for do androids of electric sheep essay topics regulating compromises: Top priority: Robust implementation of Oracle 11i quote-to-cash processes and systems to argumentative create a solid, long-term foundation for corporate initiatives. Second priority: Robust system-to-system integration within the do androids of electric sheep essay topics, foundation.Robust system-to-system integration within the foundation. Third priority: Optimization of quote-to-cash process (quote-to-book, book-to-revenue recognition, invoice-to-cash) where possible given release constraints. Figure 1. Upgraded Quote-to-Cash Architecture. These priorities were defined by the release team, and buy-in was achieved at all levels, beginning at the executive level. This corporatewide support of the project priorities was deemed critical for success, and especially necessary for overcoming the challenges relating to assigning and nation, scheduling subject matter experts to various tasks. More than 10 major organizations - including manufacturing, finance, sales, customer service, and customer advocacy - were affected by the upgrade. Cross-functional teams came together to share information about joint planning, business and system requirements, analysis, and approvals. Organizations loaned some of their most knowledgeable staff members to support the project, and do androids of electric sheep, information was shared across all groups through participation in civil, weekly release forums, all-hands meetings, readiness reviews, guidance and steering committee meetings, and functional forums.
At the highest strategic level, the steering committee provided executive-level visibility for issue resolution and resource allocations, meeting every three weeks for the duration of the project and coordinating monthly executive-level reviews. This multitiered approach facilitated consistent and timely analysis and communication of program impacts, status, and risks. Executive-level participation strengthened cross-functional relationships, allowed the release management team to make decisions quickly, and helped the Everest team determine the right priorities at dream of electric essay topics the right time to effectively utilize all resources. Cisco IT created a release management team for the day-to-day management and implementation tasks, driven by the project goals and directives from the steering committee and functional management teams. The release management team was responsible for providing regular status reports back to service the steering committee and functional management teams, as well as disseminating information as needed to company executives and employees. The collective project team of 1000 people was distributed geographically, requiring global collaboration. A central repository was created for dream of electric essay documentation and photographer, an increased focus was placed on of electric sheep, documenting discussions and decisions. Application Course Essay? In some cases, deliverables were assigned wholly to a non-headquarters location in order to provide improved efficiencies for the deliverable. Design and sheep, development phases of the project were improved by sharing resources and information across organizations.
Specifically, the team created centralized and dedicated system performance and setup teams, established cross-functional design reviews, and held regular cross-track forums to keep the lines of communication open and to resolve issues quickly as they arose. Cross-process business readiness and organizational adoption teams were formed to identify affects of the system upgrade, to prepare internal stakeholders for the release, and to effectively manage partner and customer expectations. Media Essay? Due to the magnitude of the project and the number of do androids of electric sheep essay topics people involved in civil times essay book, the actual implementation and deployment, a formal decision making structure was defined, and critical roles identified (Table 1). Overall coordination across teams. Ensuring the ability to audit the program. Test environment development and management.
Ramp-down and down-time requirements. Post go-live support. Business normalization support. Dream Of Electric? Testing and course writing, change control processes. Do Androids Essay Topics? Database and essay building nation, application performance testing. Dream Essay? Business decision making process. National Service Argumentative? Technical tasks required for the core upgrade and data conversion. Business and IT processes.
Development for business processes. “Everest involved so many organizations,” says Susan Stemel, IT project manager for the QTC implementation. “The project brought everyone together with excellent communications and team building. Do Androids Of Electric Sheep Essay? The groups worked together well and the decision-making process was effective. National Argumentative? This was only possible because everyone knew their own roles and the roles of the others on the team. The clarity of the responsibilities and the common goals kept us all moving in the same direction.” Team members agreed to negotiate and collaborate in order to meet their objectives. Active listening and clearly documented processes helped everyone understand the end-to-end processes and project implications. Do Androids? Analysts and project managers from cross-functional organizations worked together to propose jointly agreed-upon solutions to their management teams rather than expecting managers to make final decisions from an organizational point of view. Ownership was shared by jointly investing in the release and by making individual team agendas subordinate to project team goals. For example, at the highest level, the essay building, steering committee made directed moves to support the project with the best resources, and do androids essay topics, made decisions as a team to civil services book defer new scope requests in favor of supporting project priorities. In order to facilitate a greater sense of belonging and ownership, the project team empowered team members worldwide to act as representatives during local hours. To give special recognition to team members that made significant contributions to the release efforts, a peer-to-peer recognition program was put in place. Do Androids Dream? The attention paid to team building was considered a two-fold investment: it would ensure a smooth deployment, and would also optimize the rate of how to write report end-user adoption.
Several best practices formed the foundation of the do androids of electric sheep essay, project teams: Executive sponsorship helped business groups understand the impact of the upcoming changes. Essay? Templates drove consistent business readiness plans to do androids essay monitor and correct course as needed. Business normalization metrics defined normal so that business and college course writing, project teams had a clear understanding of success criteria. True partnerships were created between project teams and functional areas to do androids dream sheep topics build a sense of college course writing personal investment into do androids topics the transition. End-user adoption was carefully analyzed throughout the photographer essays, project.
To make the transition as comfortable as possible, the release management team employed numerous best practices: Up-front communications: Users were made aware of objectives, changes, impacts, and benefits, which generated readiness for project milestones and activities. Stakeholder impact and readiness data: A Web-based knowledge management database gave each functional area and job role 24x7 access to up-to-date information on the release impacts, activities, and status. Sponsorship and end-user network: Functional-level ambassadors were identified and recruited to ensure that users in each affected area were prepared and empowered during the change process. Ambassadors communicated with their user communities and solicited feedback about the impact analysis and business readiness plans. Theater visits were conducted with groups most impacted by the release in order to solicit their thoughts and concerns. As a result of the dream of electric, valuable feedback from user groups, management, and guidance committee members, plans were adjusted. Essay? Training and do androids of electric sheep, support: Training courses were creatively developed and national service argumentative, delivered, and do androids of electric sheep topics, progress was monitored to photographer ensure completion by stakeholders. A total of 120 hours of training modules included 13 instructor-led and 32 Web-based modules. Training and collateral were created in do androids dream topics, multiple languages in order to increase understanding by the culturally diverse group of customers and internal stakeholders. The Cisco release management methodology (Figure 2) brought a quality approach and industry best practices to the Everest project. The milestones required sign-off at the steering committee, functional management, or executive levels (as appropriate for the specific milestone): Concept commit: After the initial project assessments, the release team articulated a proof of concept and process improvement opportunities to the management team.
Initial estimates for resource allocations were reported and approved. Execute commit: A consolidated summary by the business processes (quote-to-cash, etc.) for all areas was reviewed before design work began. Civil? At this sign-off point, the project scope, risks, timelines, and do androids of electric essay topics, resource requirements were defined and approved. Civil Services? Global design review: This milestone confirmed the assessments of project impact and the ability of the dream sheep essay, changed processes and solutions to support Ciscoâ€™s global operations. At this point, it was also confirmed that no global showstoppers remained. This review was integral to identifying conflicting priorities and requirements, resolving the application college course essay, differences, and do androids dream sheep essay topics, reaching agreement about how joint decisions would be made.
Readiness reviews: Each of the readiness phases were aimed at evaluating the project in terms of the organizationsâ€™ ability to successfully deploy the essay writing, changes, and to ensure that acceptable levels of risk were not exceeded. Three formal business readiness reviews were held so that each organization could present their readiness status, risks, and launch preparation challenges. The Everest project team prepared three platforms for the development, testing, and staging of the new ERP software. These platforms provided stable environments for the distinct phases before actual deployment within the do androids of electric essay topics, Cisco production environment. In addition to three enterprise test cycles for testing the new software, a final test was carried out as the first step in the actual implementation phase. During this fourth and final test phase - or transition test - a team of 200 rehearsed the steps required for the go-live event. The seven-day 24x7 test allowed tasks to be practiced after the required cross-functional planning and training was complete. How To An Interim Report For A? The transition test included the thousands of of electric sheep essay actual steps later followed to bring up the Oracle 11i ERP solutions. Processes, communications, and scenarios were refined after the transition test. Figure 2. Ciscoâ€™s Release Management Methodology. “The Everest project, in terms of the cross-functional requirements and interactions, was the most unbelievable event that I’ve ever seen,” says Guillermo Diaz, Jr., director of IS and IT project leader for the Cisco customer advocacy organization during the transition to Oracle 11i. “Everybody in the company - even though we were in different organizations and part of different business processes - shared one vision to get to the top of Everest. We learned a lot about our company’s ability to work together and to accomplish amazing results.” The exhaustive preparations and rehearsals resulted in a system cutover that had minimal impact on media in pakistan essay, Cisco and its customers and partners.
The go-live event took less time than anticipated - only four days of downtime for the key systems, and only seven days total for all of the dream of electric sheep, tools and applications involved. Photographer? All of the affected organizations were ready and prepared, with workarounds and alternative tools in place to smooth the transition. A central “war room” made release team experts available to do androids dream of electric essay topics support deployment teams, and essay, a help desk was staffed with trained support teams to dream of electric essay assist end users as soon as the new systems went live. The new Oracle 11i deployment included: Replaced Oracle modules - Order Management, Accounts Receivable, Collections, Credit Card applications, Pricing, Tax Engine, plus legacy ordering and commerce tools. Retired software - 400+ ERP reports, nine legacy applications, seven programs (a 20-percent reduction of customizations). Enhancements - Re-engineering 37 out of 63 QTC subprocesses. Enhanced integrations - Service contracts and how to write an interim for a project, installed base; manufacturing; service logistics.
Business process optimization - Customer data (better validation and dream sheep, standardization of data across functional areas); standard order (improved accuracy, tighter business controls); standard return (closed loop receipt process); trade-in and asset recovery (better enforcement of expiration dates); credit card (more automation for validation and authorizations); commerce tools and business-to-business impacts (consolidation of tools, better business controls, improved customer experience); bundles (increased customer visibility of discount netting); and program retirement (identified several programs). After the go-live event, teams throughout Cisco continued sharing responsibility for report for a normalizing the business. Cross-functional â€A“Tiger Teamsâ€i?? were put in dream of electric sheep essay, place to address issues quickly. The Tiger Teams prioritized, assigned, and essay building nation, tracked the sheep, issues through to resolution. Despite the large scope and impact of the Everest release, the Cisco business was normalized on schedule within one quarter. The new foundation will be the basis for many business enhancements, enabling future collaboration between organizations and outside partners. “The overwhelming success of the Everest project has given Cisco management confidence about large-scale projects,” says Murray. Essays? “It surpassed our expectations in terms of collaboration and results. Our teams were able to dream topics sustain exceptional performance over a long period of time, and demonstrated that communications and a common vision can inspire teams to photographer reach for high goals.” Cisco customers are also beneficiaries of the new ERP foundation. With the consistent platform, reduction of customizations, and process improvements, Cisco customers gain an dream sheep essay topics, improved purchasing experience. Some of the immediate results enjoyed by the company include:
Better financial controls and tax applications Supportable global procurement Simplified pricing systems for product and service Scalable order fulfillment, order management, and accounting Scalable, integrated service logistics and case management. Photographer Essays? The results are best summarized in terms of the reactions from the various teams within Cisco that were most affected by the release, shared in do androids of electric sheep topics, the following sections. “The implementation was world-class. It showed the results of excellent planning, excellent follow-through, and excellent execution. Application College Essay Writing? The team minimized the business risk involved and really focused, in a positive way, on the leverage we can gain from cross-functional collaboration to reduce business impact.” John Chambers, President and CEO, Cisco Systems. “Oracle 11i, and specifically the of electric essay topics, Everest release, is unquestionably the most complex and sweeping system change Cisco has made in its history. Despite that complexity, the team did an outstanding job of argumentative delivering the project on do androids essay, time and with minimal impact to the business. The ability of the team to complete problem identification and resolution post go-live was outstanding. The success of this program is times essay clearly attributable to of electric sheep essay topics the quality of the team and their dedication to meeting their commitments.” Randy Pond, Senior Vice President, Operations, Processes and Systems, Cisco Systems. “Where to beginThe Everest implementation had a scope beyond immense, unprecedented complexity, and an execution totally dependent on the cross-functional cooperation and collaboration between hundreds of geographically dispersed people. What this team has pulled off is media essay totally impressive. I credit the excellent preparation and training of the team, the multiple test cycles, and a response center team that had a plan ready for every situation.” Dan Smoot, Director, Customer Services, Cisco Systems. The new platform has given the Customer Services organization the do androids dream essay, stable, efficient platform required to handle hundreds of millions of dollars in civil services times, orders each quarter.
During the transition to go-live, the organization queued up 1700 orders. With the previous Oracle 10.7 foundation, processing the backlog would have required the of electric sheep essay, dedication of their systems for 12 to 18 hours. When the new Everest release was turned on, the service team saw an photographer essays, immediate improvement: the do androids dream of electric sheep essay, backlog was processed without taking over the entire system, and was accomplished in only six hours. Application College Essay Writing? The smooth transition and do androids dream of electric sheep topics, fast normalization resulted from training more than 1100 employees during the months prior to essay nation the actual go-live. “Participation on of electric topics, the guidance committee was crucial for our organization. I received feedback from the release experts in my area, and had weekly opportunities to provide that feedback to the release management team. That regular communication and exchange of information between my team and the release management team kept us up to civil services times date and we resolved issues quickly. Our team was in do androids essay topics, the right mindset for photographer the transition, and we were able to anticipate problems ahead of time, making it a much more positive process.” Cesiah Tiran, Director of Corporate Finance, Cisco Systems. With a multiyear project like Everest, the mission-critical QTC business process represented a major challenge. The implementation touched order entry and accounts receivable modules, affecting the revenue recognition for the company. Do Androids Dream Of Electric Sheep Essay Topics? Decisions had to be made without the ability to fully estimate the impact when the system would be deployed years later.
With difficult-to-predict requirements, the service, finance team recognized the need for contingency planning. Dream Of Electric Sheep? Success was achieved by focus on the rehearsals, and having a team and escalation process in place to civil services address any surprises during the go-live event. “The Everest project was a huge endeavor for the sales organization - more than 200 market-to-order applications touch the ERP system. We had to adjust all of those interfaces and redo our business processes. Do Androids Dream Essay? We adopted many new Oracle 11i tools and reduced our reliance on how to write project, customized tools. Dream Sheep Essay? This was all carried out with minimal impact on application course essay writing, our customers.
The preparation paid off and we had no surprises during the go-live transition. Perhaps even more important, the Everest project forced a major change in our organization. Where we had been previously separate from corporate - with independent projects and systems - we have now formed relationships with other functions in Cisco. We are stronger today with our new understanding of related business operations, and stronger ties into of electric sheep essay topics other Cisco groups.” Mrinalini Ingram, Director of Finance for U.S. Sales, Cisco Systems. The entire Cisco sales force was affected by the upgrade of the ERP system. New tools and changed interfaces required extensive ongoing communications and training. By establishing stronger ties with corporate IT groups and other boundary organizations throughout Cisco, the sales organization gained a solid understanding of the potential challenges they would face during the transition. The collaborative preparation efforts resulted in reduced downtime for the sales team, and national service essay, many enhanced business processes. “Collaboration is part of the Cisco culture - the Everest project is a great example. Without effective collaboration, this project could never have succeeded.
Early on, the dream sheep, project leaders raised the profile for this program and got everyone aligned with the objectives. We could all look at the challenges and the tasks from a companywide perspective. Within Customer Advocacy, we learned a lot about how to course essay manage a major IT implementation. The Everest release gives us the foundation we need to deliver a next-generation service contract solution - we will be applying what we learned to a follow-on project that will greatly streamline our operation.” Steve Blunt, Director of Customer Advocacy, Cisco Systems. The new ERP platform required many changes in the interfaces facing the boundary systems such as the Customer Advocacy systems. This required the team to dream understand the integration issues for enabling data flow to times book the new ERP platform, and the performance requirements for meeting the service-level agreements (SLAs) of customers. In addition, the team had to ensure that the new interfaces would accommodate enhancements and new capabilities anticipated as needs for the future. By evaluating the Everest project in terms of both current and future business requirements, the Customer Advocacy team was able to dream of electric topics inject their needs into the project design and planning phases.
As project team members returned to pre-Everest roles or moved on to new roles, they took with them a better understanding of teamworking behaviors that help to drive a more seamless customer experience across Cisco. At the same time, this project team is essay nation taking an increased understanding of customer impacts from do androids of electric sheep essay topics, internal Cisco projects back into their organizations’ roadmap discussions and planning exercises. National Service Essay? Many teams have commented on the increased levels of do androids dream sheep proactive cross-functional planning. Their inter-Cisco network has expanded to include contacts for answers to business process questions. Team members have also increased their appreciation for media the value of end-user participation throughout project lifecycles.
Instead of deferring to individual team messaging, Everest team members developed a new teamwork behavior and model - allowing messaging to come from a sponsoring business process and then being tailored to meet their groups’ needs. This approach was used extensively by the Organization Adoption teams and is now accepted as a best practice for future initiatives. Universally, the Everest team has gained an increased sensitivity to team members in non-headquarter locations and how important it is to dream topics follow basic principles for meeting etiquette and how to write an interim report for a project, scheduling. The company has also recognized the need to dream sheep essay establish a site-project coordinator to streamline cross-functional discussions. Many lists of lessons learned have been shared in post-event presentations, with some highlights included here: Align organizational priorities and initiatives.
Optimize use of subject matter expert time (off-load detailed deliverables and project management activities whenever possible). Actively mitigate risks to ensure release priorities are met. Ownership must be driven by the business function. Collaboration brings results. Well-managed business rules and photographer essays, smooth order processes are directly related (affecting design and normalization).
This last phase in the multiyear migration to the Oracle 11i platform now becomes the beginning of a new multiyear journey to take full advantage of the new platform. All the do androids of electric, affected organizations are focused on getting back to times essay business as usual, while looking forward to many innovative advances in business processes made possible by the enhanced technology foundation. Highly efficient cross-functional business processes now characterize Cisco’s operations, and every team enjoys confidence in the company’s ability to cooperate across functional areas to overcome business challenges. Some of the planned enhancements enabled by the new platform include: Global, segmented pricing models, policies, and processes Integrated offers: hardware, software, service, financing Improved and dream, segmented ordering experience Widescale automation of financial controls Productivity improvements for national sales, partners, and customers.
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Реферат: Do Androids Dream Of Electric Sheep Essay
How Did Economists Get It So Wrong? I. MISTAKING BEAUTY FOR TRUTH. It’s hard to do androids of electric sheep, believe now, but not long ago economists were congratulating themselves over the success of their field. Those successes — or so they believed — were both theoretical and practical, leading to a golden era for the profession. On the media in pakistan essay theoretical side, they thought that they had resolved their internal disputes. Thus, in a 2008 paper titled “The State of Macro” (that is, macroeconomics, the dream of electric sheep topics study of big-picture issues like recessions), Olivier Blanchard of M.I.T., now the media chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, declared that “the state of macro is good.” The battles of yesteryear, he said, were over, and there had been a “broad convergence of vision.” And in the real world, economists believed they had things under control: the “central problem of depression-prevention has been solved,” declared Robert Lucas of the University of Chicago in sheep topics his 2003 presidential address to the American Economic Association. In 2004, Ben Bernanke, a former Princeton professor who is now the chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, celebrated the Great Moderation in economic performance over the previous two decades, which he attributed in part to improved economic policy making. Last year, everything came apart. Few economists saw our current crisis coming, but this predictive failure was the photographer essays least of the field’s problems. More important was the profession’s blindness to the very possibility of catastrophic failures in a market economy.
During the golden years, financial economists came to believe that markets were inherently stable — indeed, that stocks and other assets were always priced just right. There was nothing in the prevailing models suggesting the do androids of electric essay topics possibility of the kind of collapse that happened last year. Course? Meanwhile, macroeconomists were divided in their views. But the do androids dream of electric topics main division was between those who insisted that free-market economies never go astray and those who believed that economies may stray now and essays then but that any major deviations from the path of prosperity could and would be corrected by the all-powerful Fed. Neither side was prepared to cope with an economy that went off the rails despite the dream of electric essay Fed’s best efforts. And in building nation the wake of the crisis, the fault lines in the economics profession have yawned wider than ever.
Lucas says the Obama administration’s stimulus plans are “schlock economics,” and his Chicago colleague John Cochrane says they’re based on discredited “fairy tales.” In response, Brad DeLong of the University of California, Berkeley, writes of the “intellectual collapse” of the Chicago School, and I myself have written that comments from Chicago economists are the product of a Dark Age of macroeconomics in which hard-won knowledge has been forgotten. What happened to the economics profession? And where does it go from here? As I see it, the economics profession went astray because economists, as a group, mistook beauty, clad in do androids essay impressive-looking mathematics, for truth. Until the Great Depression, most economists clung to a vision of capitalism as a perfect or nearly perfect system. That vision wasn’t sustainable in the face of mass unemployment, but as memories of the Depression faded, economists fell back in love with the essay old, idealized vision of an economy in which rational individuals interact in do androids of electric sheep topics perfect markets, this time gussied up with fancy equations. The renewed romance with the college essay writing idealized market was, to dream of electric topics, be sure, partly a response to shifting political winds, partly a response to financial incentives. An Interim Project? But while sabbaticals at the Hoover Institution and job opportunities on Wall Street are nothing to sneeze at, the central cause of the sheep essay topics profession’s failure was the nation desire for an all-encompassing, intellectually elegant approach that also gave economists a chance to show off their mathematical prowess. Unfortunately, this romanticized and sanitized vision of the economy led most economists to ignore all the things that can go wrong.
They turned a blind eye to the limitations of human rationality that often lead to bubbles and busts; to the problems of institutions that run amok; to the imperfections of markets — especially financial markets — that can cause the economy’s operating system to dream of electric topics, undergo sudden, unpredictable crashes; and to times essay book, the dangers created when regulators don’t believe in regulation. It’s much harder to say where the do androids essay economics profession goes from photographer essays here. Topics? But what’s almost certain is that economists will have to learn to live with messiness. Civil Services Essay? That is, they will have to acknowledge the importance of irrational and often unpredictable behavior, face up to the often idiosyncratic imperfections of markets and accept that an elegant economic “theory of everything” is a long way off. Do Androids Dream? In practical terms, this will translate into more cautious policy advice — and a reduced willingness to building, dismantle economic safeguards in the faith that markets will solve all problems. II. FROM SMITH TO KEYNES AND BACK. The birth of economics as a discipline is usually credited to Adam Smith, who published “The Wealth of Nations” in do androids dream sheep essay topics 1776. Over the next 160 years an extensive body of economic theory was developed, whose central message was: Trust the market.
Yes, economists admitted that there were cases in which markets might fail, of which the national service essay most important was the case of dream topics, “externalities” — costs that people impose on others without paying the price, like traffic congestion or pollution. But the basic presumption of photographer essays, “neoclassical” economics (named after the late-19th-century theorists who elaborated on the concepts of their “classical” predecessors) was that we should have faith in the market system. This faith was, however, shattered by the Great Depression. Actually, even in the face of total collapse some economists insisted that whatever happens in a market economy must be right: “Depressions are not simply evils,” declared Joseph Schumpeter in 1934 — 1934! They are, he added, “forms of something which has to do androids dream topics, be done.” But many, and eventually most, economists turned to the insights of John Maynard Keynes for both an explanation of what had happened and a solution to future depressions. Keynes did not, despite what you may have heard, want the civil services times essay book government to run the economy. He described his analysis in his 1936 masterwork, “The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money,” as “moderately conservative in its implications.” He wanted to fix capitalism, not replace it. Do Androids Of Electric? But he did challenge the nation notion that free-market economies can function without a minder, expressing particular contempt for financial markets, which he viewed as being dominated by do androids dream sheep topics, short-term speculation with little regard for fundamentals.
And he called for active government intervention — printing more money and, if necessary, spending heavily on public works — to fight unemployment during slumps. It’s important to understand that Keynes did much more than make bold assertions. “The General Theory” is civil times essay, a work of profound, deep analysis — analysis that persuaded the best young economists of the day. Yet the dream sheep story of economics over essay building the past half century is, to a large degree, the story of a retreat from Keynesianism and a return to neoclassicism. The neoclassical revival was initially led by do androids dream of electric topics, Milton Friedman of the University of Chicago, who asserted as early as 1953 that neoclassical economics works well enough as a description of the way the nation economy actually functions to be “both extremely fruitful and deserving of much confidence.” But what about depressions? Friedman’s counterattack against Keynes began with the doctrine known as monetarism. Sheep Topics? Monetarists didn’t disagree in principle with the idea that a market economy needs deliberate stabilization. “We are all Keynesians now,” Friedman once said, although he later claimed he was quoted out of context. Report? Monetarists asserted, however, that a very limited, circumscribed form of dream sheep, government intervention — namely, instructing central banks to times essay, keep the nation’s money supply, the sum of cash in circulation and dream essay bank deposits, growing on a steady path — is all that’s required to in pakistan essay, prevent depressions.
Famously, Friedman and his collaborator, Anna Schwartz, argued that if the Federal Reserve had done its job properly, the Great Depression would not have happened. Later, Friedman made a compelling case against any deliberate effort by government to sheep, push unemployment below its “natural” level (currently thought to essay, be about 4.8 percent in the United States): excessively expansionary policies, he predicted, would lead to of electric sheep, a combination of inflation and high unemployment — a prediction that was borne out by the stagflation of the 1970s, which greatly advanced the credibility of the anti-Keynesian movement. Eventually, however, the anti-Keynesian counterrevolution went far beyond Friedman’s position, which came to seem relatively moderate compared with what his successors were saying. Among financial economists, Keynes’s disparaging vision of financial markets as a “casino” was replaced by “efficient market” theory, which asserted that financial markets always get asset prices right given the available information. Meanwhile, many macroeconomists completely rejected Keynes’s framework for understanding economic slumps. Photographer? Some returned to the view of Schumpeter and other apologists for the Great Depression, viewing recessions as a good thing, part of the economy’s adjustment to change.
And even those not willing to go that far argued that any attempt to fight an economic slump would do more harm than good. Not all macroeconomists were willing to do androids essay topics, go down this road: many became self-described New Keynesians, who continued to believe in in pakistan an active role for the government. Yet even they mostly accepted the notion that investors and consumers are rational and that markets generally get it right. Of course, there were exceptions to these trends: a few economists challenged the assumption of rational behavior, questioned the belief that financial markets can be trusted and of electric sheep essay pointed to the long history of financial crises that had devastating economic consequences. Application Course Essay? But they were swimming against the tide, unable to make much headway against a pervasive and, in retrospect, foolish complacency. In the 1930s, financial markets, for obvious reasons, didn’t get much respect. Keynes compared them to “those newspaper competitions in which the competitors have to pick out the six prettiest faces from a hundred photographs, the do androids dream sheep essay topics prize being awarded to the competitor whose choice most nearly corresponds to the average preferences of the competitors as a whole; so that each competitor has to pick, not those faces which he himself finds prettiest, but those that he thinks likeliest to catch the fancy of the civil other competitors.” And Keynes considered it a very bad idea to do androids dream sheep topics, let such markets, in which speculators spent their time chasing one another’s tails, dictate important business decisions: “When the civil services book capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the do androids essay activities of a casino, the job is likely to building, be ill-done.” By 1970 or so, however, the study of financial markets seemed to have been taken over by Voltaire’s Dr.
Pangloss, who insisted that we live in the best of all possible worlds. Discussion of do androids of electric sheep topics, investor irrationality, of bubbles, of civil services, destructive speculation had virtually disappeared from academic discourse. The field was dominated by the “efficient-market hypothesis,” promulgated by Eugene Fama of the University of Chicago, which claims that financial markets price assets precisely at their intrinsic worth given all publicly available information. (The price of do androids dream of electric sheep topics, a company’s stock, for example, always accurately reflects the company’s value given the information available on services the company’s earnings, its business prospects and so on.) And by the 1980s, finance economists, notably Michael Jensen of the Harvard Business School, were arguing that because financial markets always get prices right, the do androids dream sheep best thing corporate chieftains can do, not just for services times, themselves but for of electric sheep essay, the sake of the economy, is to maximize their stock prices. In other words, finance economists believed that we should put the capital development of the nation in the hands of what Keynes had called a “casino.” It’s hard to argue that this transformation in how to an interim report for a the profession was driven by events. True, the memory of 1929 was gradually receding, but there continued to be bull markets, with widespread tales of speculative excess, followed by bear markets. In 1973-4, for example, stocks lost 48 percent of their value.
And the 1987 stock crash, in which the Dow plunged nearly 23 percent in a day for no clear reason, should have raised at dream of electric sheep essay least a few doubts about market rationality. These events, however, which Keynes would have considered evidence of the unreliability of markets, did little to civil essay, blunt the force of a beautiful idea. The theoretical model that finance economists developed by assuming that every investor rationally balances risk against dream of electric, reward — the so-called Capital Asset Pricing Model, or CAPM (pronounced cap-em) — is service argumentative essay, wonderfully elegant. And if you accept its premises it’s also extremely useful. Sheep Essay Topics? CAPM not only tells you how to choose your portfolio — even more important from the financial industry’s point of view, it tells you how to national service, put a price on financial derivatives, claims on claims. The elegance and apparent usefulness of the new theory led to a string of do androids sheep topics, Nobel prizes for its creators, and many of the theory’s adepts also received more mundane rewards: Armed with their new models and formidable math skills — the more arcane uses of CAPM require physicist-level computations — mild-mannered business-school professors could and did become Wall Street rocket scientists, earning Wall Street paychecks. To be fair, finance theorists didn’t accept the efficient-market hypothesis merely because it was elegant, convenient and lucrative. Civil Book? They also produced a great deal of statistical evidence, which at first seemed strongly supportive. But this evidence was of an do androids dream topics oddly limited form. Finance economists rarely asked the seemingly obvious (though not easily answered) question of whether asset prices made sense given real-world fundamentals like earnings.
Instead, they asked only essay nation, whether asset prices made sense given other asset prices. Larry Summers, now the top economic adviser in the Obama administration, once mocked finance professors with a parable about “ketchup economists” who “have shown that two-quart bottles of ketchup invariably sell for exactly twice as much as one-quart bottles of do androids sheep essay, ketchup,” and conclude from media essay this that the ketchup market is perfectly efficient. But neither this mockery nor more polite critiques from economists like Robert Shiller of Yale had much effect. Finance theorists continued to do androids sheep topics, believe that their models were essentially right, and so did many people making real-world decisions. Not least among these was Alan Greenspan, who was then the Fed chairman and a long-time supporter of application college essay, financial deregulation whose rejection of calls to rein in subprime lending or address the ever-inflating housing bubble rested in large part on the belief that modern financial economics had everything under control. There was a telling moment in dream topics 2005, at application essay a conference held to honor Greenspan’s tenure at do androids sheep the Fed. One brave attendee, Raghuram Rajan (of the media University of do androids dream of electric sheep essay, Chicago, surprisingly), presented a paper warning that the financial system was taking on potentially dangerous levels of services essay, risk. He was mocked by almost all present — including, by the way, Larry Summers, who dismissed his warnings as “misguided.” By October of last year, however, Greenspan was admitting that he was in a state of “shocked disbelief,” because “the whole intellectual edifice” had “collapsed.” Since this collapse of the intellectual edifice was also a collapse of do androids of electric essay topics, real-world markets, the result was a severe recession — the worst, by many measures, since the essays Great Depression. Do Androids Dream Sheep Topics? What should policy makers do?
Unfortunately, macroeconomics, which should have been providing clear guidance about how to address the slumping economy, was in its own state of an interim report, disarray. “We have involved ourselves in a colossal muddle, having blundered in the control of a delicate machine, the working of which we do not understand. The result is do androids dream of electric sheep, that our possibilities of wealth may run to waste for a time — perhaps for essays, a long time.” So wrote John Maynard Keynes in an essay titled “The Great Slump of 1930,” in which he tried to do androids sheep topics, explain the catastrophe then overtaking the world. And the media in pakistan essay world’s possibilities of wealth did indeed run to waste for do androids dream essay, a long time; it took World War II to bring the Great Depression to a definitive end. Why was Keynes’s diagnosis of the building nation Great Depression as a “colossal muddle” so compelling at first? And why did economics, circa 1975, divide into opposing camps over the value of Keynes’s views? I like to explain the essence of Keynesian economics with a true story that also serves as a parable, a small-scale version of the messes that can afflict entire economies. Consider the travails of the Capitol Hill Baby-Sitting Co-op. This co-op, whose problems were recounted in a 1977 article in do androids sheep topics The Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, was an association of about 150 young couples who agreed to essay, help one another by baby-sitting for essay, one another’s children when parents wanted a night out.
To ensure that every couple did its fair share of baby-sitting, the co-op introduced a form of scrip: coupons made out of heavy pieces of paper, each entitling the bearer to one half-hour of sitting time. Initially, members received 20 coupons on photographer essays joining and were required to return the same amount on departing the group. Unfortunately, it turned out that the co-op’s members, on average, wanted to hold a reserve of more than 20 coupons, perhaps, in case they should want to go out several times in a row. As a result, relatively few people wanted to dream of electric, spend their scrip and go out, while many wanted to baby-sit so they could add to their hoard. But since baby-sitting opportunities arise only when someone goes out for the night, this meant that baby-sitting jobs were hard to find, which made members of the co-op even more reluctant to go out, making baby-sitting jobs even scarcer. Media In Pakistan Essay? . . . In short, the co-op fell into a recession. O.K., what do you think of this story? Don’t dismiss it as silly and trivial: economists have used small-scale examples to shed light on big questions ever since Adam Smith saw the roots of economic progress in a pin factory, and sheep essay they’re right to how to write, do so. The question is whether this particular example, in do androids of electric which a recession is a problem of inadequate demand — there isn’t enough demand for baby-sitting to provide jobs for everyone who wants one — gets at essay building nation the essence of what happens in a recession. Forty years ago most economists would have agreed with this interpretation. But since then macroeconomics has divided into two great factions: “saltwater” economists (mainly in coastal U.S. universities), who have a more or less Keynesian vision of what recessions are all about; and “freshwater” economists (mainly at inland schools), who consider that vision nonsense. Freshwater economists are, essentially, neoclassical purists.
They believe that all worthwhile economic analysis starts from the premise that people are rational and markets work, a premise violated by the story of the baby-sitting co-op. As they see it, a general lack of sufficient demand isn’t possible, because prices always move to match supply with demand. If people want more baby-sitting coupons, the dream of electric sheep essay topics value of those coupons will rise, so that they’re worth, say, 40 minutes of baby-sitting rather than half an hour — or, equivalently, the cost of an application writing hours’ baby-sitting would fall from 2 coupons to 1.5. And that would solve the problem: the purchasing power of the coupons in circulation would have risen, so that people would feel no need to hoard more, and there would be no recession. But don’t recessions look like periods in which there just isn’t enough demand to employ everyone willing to work? Appearances can be deceiving, say the freshwater theorists. Sound economics, in their view, says that overall failures of demand can’t happen — and that means that they don’t.
Keynesian economics has been “proved false,” Cochrane, of the University of Chicago, says. Yet recessions do happen. Do Androids Essay? Why? In the 1970s the leading freshwater macroeconomist, the Nobel laureate Robert Lucas, argued that recessions were caused by temporary confusion: workers and companies had trouble distinguishing overall changes in photographer essays the level of do androids of electric sheep essay topics, prices because of media in pakistan essay, inflation or deflation from do androids dream of electric essay topics changes in their own particular business situation. And Lucas warned that any attempt to fight the media in pakistan business cycle would be counterproductive: activist policies, he argued, would just add to the confusion. By the do androids dream of electric essay 1980s, however, even this severely limited acceptance of the idea that recessions are bad things had been rejected by many freshwater economists. Instead, the new leaders of the movement, especially Edward Prescott, who was then at the University of Minnesota (you can see where the photographer freshwater moniker comes from), argued that price fluctuations and changes in demand actually had nothing to do with the sheep business cycle. Rather, the civil times essay business cycle reflects fluctuations in dream of electric sheep the rate of essays, technological progress, which are amplified by the rational response of workers, who voluntarily work more when the environment is favorable and do androids dream of electric essay topics less when it’s unfavorable. Photographer? Unemployment is a deliberate decision by workers to take time off. Put baldly like that, this theory sounds foolish — was the Great Depression really the dream of electric essay topics Great Vacation?
And to services times essay, be honest, I think it really is silly. Do Androids Dream Essay Topics? But the essay building basic premise of Prescott’s “real business cycle” theory was embedded in ingeniously constructed mathematical models, which were mapped onto real data using sophisticated statistical techniques, and the theory came to dominate the teaching of macroeconomics in dream sheep many university departments. In 2004, reflecting the theory’s influence, Prescott shared a Nobel with Finn Kydland of Carnegie Mellon University. Meanwhile, saltwater economists balked. Where the freshwater economists were purists, saltwater economists were pragmatists. While economists like N. Gregory Mankiw at civil times essay Harvard, Olivier Blanchard at M.I.T. and David Romer at the University of California, Berkeley, acknowledged that it was hard to reconcile a Keynesian demand-side view of recessions with neoclassical theory, they found the evidence that recessions are, in fact, demand-driven too compelling to reject.
So they were willing to deviate from the assumption of perfect markets or perfect rationality, or both, adding enough imperfections to accommodate a more or less Keynesian view of recessions. And in the saltwater view, active policy to fight recessions remained desirable. But the self-described New Keynesian economists weren’t immune to the charms of rational individuals and perfect markets. They tried to keep their deviations from neoclassical orthodoxy as limited as possible. This meant that there was no room in the prevailing models for such things as bubbles and banking-system collapse. The fact that such things continued to happen in the real world — there was a terrible financial and macroeconomic crisis in much of do androids dream of electric sheep topics, Asia in 1997-8 and a depression-level slump in Argentina in 2002 — wasn’t reflected in the mainstream of New Keynesian thinking. Even so, you might have thought that the differing worldviews of freshwater and saltwater economists would have put them constantly at loggerheads over economic policy. Somewhat surprisingly, however, between around 1985 and 2007 the disputes between freshwater and saltwater economists were mainly about theory, not action.
The reason, I believe, is that New Keynesians, unlike the original Keynesians, didn’t think fiscal policy — changes in photographer essays government spending or taxes — was needed to fight recessions. They believed that monetary policy, administered by the technocrats at the Fed, could provide whatever remedies the economy needed. At a 90th birthday celebration for Milton Friedman, Ben Bernanke, formerly a more or less New Keynesian professor at Princeton, and by then a member of the Fed’s governing board, declared of the sheep topics Great Depression: “You’re right. We did it. We’re very sorry. But thanks to you, it won’t happen again.” The clear message was that all you need to avoid depressions is a smarter Fed. And as long as macroeconomic policy was left in the hands of the maestro Greenspan, without Keynesian-type stimulus programs, freshwater economists found little to complain about. (They didn’t believe that monetary policy did any good, but they didn’t believe it did any harm, either.) An error has occurred. Please try again later. You are already subscribed to this email.
It would take a crisis to reveal both how little common ground there was and essays how Panglossian even New Keynesian economics had become. In recent, rueful economics discussions, an all-purpose punch line has become “nobody could have predicted. . . Do Androids Dream Of Electric Topics? .” It’s what you say with regard to disasters that could have been predicted, should have been predicted and actually were predicted by a few economists who were scoffed at photographer essays for their pains. Take, for example, the precipitous rise and fall of do androids of electric essay topics, housing prices. Photographer? Some economists, notably Robert Shiller, did identify the dream sheep topics bubble and warn of national service, painful consequences if it were to burst. Yet key policy makers failed to see the obvious. In 2004, Alan Greenspan dismissed talk of a housing bubble: “a national severe price distortion,” he declared, was “most unlikely.” Home-price increases, Ben Bernanke said in 2005, “largely reflect strong economic fundamentals.” How did they miss the bubble? To be fair, interest rates were unusually low, possibly explaining part of the price rise. It may be that Greenspan and Bernanke also wanted to celebrate the Fed’s success in pulling the economy out of the 2001 recession; conceding that much of that success rested on the creation of a monstrous bubble would have placed a damper on the festivities. But there was something else going on: a general belief that bubbles just don’t happen. What’s striking, when you reread Greenspan’s assurances, is that they weren’t based on evidence — they were based on the a priori assertion that there simply can’t be a bubble in dream housing.
And the media finance theorists were even more adamant on this point. In a 2007 interview, Eugene Fama, the father of the efficient-market hypothesis, declared that “the word ‘bubble’ drives me nuts,” and do androids dream of electric sheep essay topics went on to explain why we can trust the housing market: “Housing markets are less liquid, but people are very careful when they buy houses. It’s typically the biggest investment they’re going to make, so they look around very carefully and civil book they compare prices. Dream Of Electric Essay Topics? The bidding process is very detailed.” Indeed, home buyers generally do carefully compare prices — that is, they compare the price of application essay writing, their potential purchase with the prices of other houses. But this says nothing about dream of electric sheep, whether the overall price of houses is photographer, justified. Of Electric Sheep Topics? It’s ketchup economics, again: because a two-quart bottle of application essay writing, ketchup costs twice as much as a one-quart bottle, finance theorists declare that the dream sheep essay price of national essay, ketchup must be right. In short, the sheep essay topics belief in efficient financial markets blinded many if not most economists to the emergence of the biggest financial bubble in essays history.
And efficient-market theory also played a significant role in inflating that bubble in the first place. Now that the sheep essay topics undiagnosed bubble has burst, the essay building true riskiness of do androids sheep topics, supposedly safe assets has been revealed and the financial system has demonstrated its fragility. An Interim For A Project? U.S. Do Androids Dream Sheep Essay Topics? households have seen $13 trillion in wealth evaporate. More than six million jobs have been lost, and the unemployment rate appears headed for write for a project, its highest level since 1940. So what guidance does modern economics have to do androids of electric sheep topics, offer in our current predicament? And should we trust it? Between 1985 and 2007 a false peace settled over the field of macroeconomics. There hadn’t been any real convergence of views between the saltwater and freshwater factions. But these were the years of the in pakistan essay Great Moderation — an extended period during which inflation was subdued and recessions were relatively mild.
Saltwater economists believed that the Federal Reserve had everything under control. Freshwater economists didn’t think the Fed’s actions were actually beneficial, but they were willing to of electric sheep topics, let matters lie. But the crisis ended the phony peace. Suddenly the narrow, technocratic policies both sides were willing to accept were no longer sufficient — and the need for service argumentative essay, a broader policy response brought the dream of electric essay topics old conflicts out into how to write for a project the open, fiercer than ever. Why weren’t those narrow, technocratic policies sufficient? The answer, in a word, is zero. During a normal recession, the Fed responds by dream of electric essay topics, buying Treasury bills — short-term government debt — from banks. This drives interest rates on essays government debt down; investors seeking a higher rate of return move into other assets, driving other interest rates down as well; and normally these lower interest rates eventually lead to an economic bounceback.
The Fed dealt with the recession that began in 1990 by do androids dream sheep essay topics, driving short-term interest rates from book 9 percent down to 3 percent. It dealt with the recession that began in 2001 by do androids dream of electric essay, driving rates from 6.5 percent to national service argumentative, 1 percent. And it tried to deal with the current recession by driving rates down from 5.25 percent to zero. But zero, it turned out, isn’t low enough to end this recession. And the Fed can’t push rates below zero, since at do androids sheep near-zero rates investors simply hoard cash rather than lending it out. So by late 2008, with interest rates basically at what macroeconomists call the media in pakistan “zero lower bound” even as the recession continued to deepen, conventional monetary policy had lost all traction. Now what? This is the second time America has been up against do androids dream essay topics, the zero lower bound, the previous occasion being the Great Depression. And it was precisely the observation that there’s a lower bound to interest rates that led Keynes to advocate higher government spending: when monetary policy is ineffective and the private sector can’t be persuaded to spend more, the public sector must take its place in civil times essay supporting the economy. Fiscal stimulus is the Keynesian answer to the kind of do androids dream of electric essay, depression-type economic situation we’re currently in.
Such Keynesian thinking underlies the Obama administration’s economic policies — and photographer essays the freshwater economists are furious. Sheep Essay? For 25 or so years they tolerated the Fed’s efforts to manage the economy, but a full-blown Keynesian resurgence was something entirely different. Back in 1980, Lucas, of the University of Chicago, wrote that Keynesian economics was so ludicrous that “at research seminars, people don’t take Keynesian theorizing seriously anymore; the audience starts to whisper and giggle to one another.” Admitting that Keynes was largely right, after all, would be too humiliating a comedown. And so Chicago’s Cochrane, outraged at services times essay the idea that government spending could mitigate the dream of electric essay latest recession, declared: “It’s not part of what anybody has taught graduate students since the 1960s. Write Project? They [Keynesian ideas] are fairy tales that have been proved false.
It is very comforting in times of stress to go back to the fairy tales we heard as children, but it doesn’t make them less false.” (It’s a mark of how deep the division between saltwater and freshwater runs that Cochrane doesn’t believe that “anybody” teaches ideas that are, in fact, taught in places like Princeton, M.I.T. and Harvard.) Meanwhile, saltwater economists, who had comforted themselves with the belief that the great divide in macroeconomics was narrowing, were shocked to realize that freshwater economists hadn’t been listening at dream of electric sheep topics all. Freshwater economists who inveighed against the stimulus didn’t sound like scholars who had weighed Keynesian arguments and found them wanting. Rather, they sounded like people who had no idea what Keynesian economics was about, who were resurrecting pre-1930 fallacies in the belief that they were saying something new and profound. And it wasn’t just Keynes whose ideas seemed to have been forgotten. As Brad DeLong of the University of California, Berkeley, has pointed out in his laments about the in pakistan Chicago school’s “intellectual collapse,” the school’s current stance amounts to do androids dream of electric sheep essay topics, a wholesale rejection of Milton Friedman’s ideas, as well. How To Write Project? Friedman believed that Fed policy rather than changes in of electric sheep essay government spending should be used to stabilize the economy, but he never asserted that an increase in government spending cannot, under any circumstances, increase employment. Service Argumentative Essay? In fact, rereading Friedman’s 1970 summary of his ideas, “A Theoretical Framework for Monetary Analysis,” what’s striking is how Keynesian it seems.
And Friedman certainly never bought into the idea that mass unemployment represents a voluntary reduction in work effort or the idea that recessions are actually good for the economy. Do Androids Dream Sheep Essay? Yet the current generation of freshwater economists has been making both arguments. Thus Chicago’s Casey Mulligan suggests that unemployment is services essay book, so high because many workers are choosing not to take jobs: “Employees face financial incentives that encourage them not to do androids of electric sheep topics, work . Media In Pakistan? . Dream Of Electric Sheep Essay Topics? . decreased employment is explained more by reductions in photographer essays the supply of dream of electric essay, labor (the willingness of people to work) and less by the demand for photographer essays, labor (the number of workers that employers need to hire).” Mulligan has suggested, in particular, that workers are choosing to remain unemployed because that improves their odds of receiving mortgage relief. And Cochrane declares that high unemployment is do androids of electric sheep essay topics, actually good: “We should have a recession. People who spend their lives pounding nails in Nevada need something else to do.” Personally, I think this is application college course writing, crazy.
Why should it take mass unemployment across the whole nation to do androids sheep essay topics, get carpenters to move out of Nevada? Can anyone seriously claim that we’ve lost 6.7 million jobs because fewer Americans want to work? But it was inevitable that freshwater economists would find themselves trapped in this cul-de-sac: if you start from the assumption that people are perfectly rational and markets are perfectly efficient, you have to conclude that unemployment is voluntary and recessions are desirable. Yet if the crisis has pushed freshwater economists into absurdity, it has also created a lot of soul-searching among saltwater economists. Their framework, unlike that of the Chicago School, both allows for essay, the possibility of involuntary unemployment and considers it a bad thing. Do Androids Dream Of Electric Sheep Essay Topics? But the New Keynesian models that have come to dominate teaching and research assume that people are perfectly rational and financial markets are perfectly efficient.
To get anything like the current slump into their models, New Keynesians are forced to introduce some kind of fudge factor that for reasons unspecified temporarily depresses private spending. (I’ve done exactly that in some of photographer essays, my own work.) And if the analysis of do androids dream of electric sheep essay topics, where we are now rests on this fudge factor, how much confidence can we have in college course the models’ predictions about where we are going? The state of macro, in short, is not good. Dream Of Electric Essay? So where does the profession go from here? Economics, as a field, got in trouble because economists were seduced by the vision of a perfect, frictionless market system. If the profession is to redeem itself, it will have to reconcile itself to a less alluring vision — that of a market economy that has many virtues but that is also shot through with flaws and frictions. The good news is that we don’t have to start from scratch. Even during the essays heyday of perfect-market economics, there was a lot of dream of electric topics, work done on essay the ways in of electric topics which the real economy deviated from the theoretical ideal.
What’s probably going to happen now — in fact, it’s already happening — is that flaws-and-frictions economics will move from the periphery of economic analysis to its center. There’s already a fairly well developed example of the kind of economics I have in mind: the school of thought known as behavioral finance. Practitioners of this approach emphasize two things. First, many real-world investors bear little resemblance to the cool calculators of photographer, efficient-market theory: they’re all too subject to herd behavior, to bouts of irrational exuberance and unwarranted panic. Do Androids Of Electric Sheep Essay Topics? Second, even those who try to base their decisions on cool calculation often find that they can’t, that problems of application college essay writing, trust, credibility and do androids dream essay limited collateral force them to run with the herd. On the first point: even during the heyday of the nation efficient-market hypothesis, it seemed obvious that many real-world investors aren’t as rational as the prevailing models assumed. Larry Summers once began a paper on finance by declaring: “THERE ARE IDIOTS. Look around.” But what kind of do androids, idiots (the preferred term in the academic literature, actually, is “noise traders”) are we talking about? Behavioral finance, drawing on the broader movement known as behavioral economics, tries to answer that question by relating the apparent irrationality of investors to known biases in human cognition, like the tendency to care more about small losses than small gains or the tendency to extrapolate too readily from small samples (e.g., assuming that because home prices rose in civil essay book the past few years, they’ll keep on do androids of electric sheep rising). Until the crisis, efficient-market advocates like Eugene Fama dismissed the evidence produced on behalf of behavioral finance as a collection of “curiosity items” of no real importance. That’s a much harder position to maintain now that the collapse of a vast bubble — a bubble correctly diagnosed by behavioral economists like Robert Shiller of Yale, who related it to past episodes of “irrational exuberance” — has brought the world economy to its knees.
On the second point: suppose that there are, indeed, idiots. Application? How much do they matter? Not much, argued Milton Friedman in an influential 1953 paper: smart investors will make money by buying when the dream of electric idiots sell and selling when they buy and will stabilize markets in the process. In Pakistan? But the second strand of behavioral finance says that Friedman was wrong, that financial markets are sometimes highly unstable, and right now that view seems hard to dream topics, reject. Probably the most influential paper in this vein was a 1997 publication by Andrei Shleifer of Harvard and Robert Vishny of Chicago, which amounted to a formalization of the old line that “the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” As they pointed out, arbitrageurs — the people who are supposed to buy low and sell high — need capital to do their jobs. And a severe plunge in times book asset prices, even if it makes no sense in terms of fundamentals, tends to deplete that capital. As a result, the smart money is forced out of the market, and do androids dream sheep essay prices may go into photographer essays a downward spiral. The spread of the current financial crisis seemed almost like an object lesson in the perils of financial instability.
And the general ideas underlying models of financial instability have proved highly relevant to do androids of electric, economic policy: a focus on the depleted capital of financial institutions helped guide policy actions taken after the fall of Lehman, and it looks (cross your fingers) as if these actions successfully headed off an even bigger financial collapse. Meanwhile, what about media in pakistan essay, macroeconomics? Recent events have pretty decisively refuted the idea that recessions are an optimal response to fluctuations in the rate of technological progress; a more or less Keynesian view is the do androids sheep essay only plausible game in town. Yet standard New Keynesian models left no room for a crisis like the one we’re having, because those models generally accepted the efficient-market view of the financial sector. There were some exceptions.
One line of work, pioneered by none other than Ben Bernanke working with Mark Gertler of building, New York University, emphasized the way the do androids dream of electric sheep essay topics lack of sufficient collateral can hinder the ability of businesses to an interim for a project, raise funds and dream of electric sheep essay pursue investment opportunities. A related line of work, largely established by my Princeton colleague Nobuhiro Kiyotaki and John Moore of the London School of Economics, argued that prices of assets such as real estate can suffer self-reinforcing plunges that in civil times essay turn depress the economy as a whole. But until now the do androids sheep topics impact of dysfunctional finance hasn’t been at the core even of Keynesian economics. In Pakistan? Clearly, that has to change. So here’s what I think economists have to do. First, they have to face up to the inconvenient reality that financial markets fall far short of perfection, that they are subject to of electric sheep topics, extraordinary delusions and the madness of crowds. Second, they have to admit — and this will be very hard for the people who giggled and whispered over Keynes — that Keynesian economics remains the application course best framework we have for making sense of recessions and essay depressions.
Third, they’ll have to do their best to civil times essay, incorporate the realities of finance into do androids dream macroeconomics. Many economists will find these changes deeply disturbing. It will be a long time, if ever, before the new, more realistic approaches to in pakistan essay, finance and macroeconomics offer the do androids dream sheep topics same kind of clarity, completeness and sheer beauty that characterizes the full neoclassical approach. To some economists that will be a reason to cling to times book, neoclassicism, despite its utter failure to make sense of the greatest economic crisis in three generations. This seems, however, like a good time to recall the do androids of electric essay topics words of H. L. Mencken: “There is always an easy solution to media essay, every human problem — neat, plausible and wrong.” When it comes to the all-too-human problem of recessions and depressions, economists need to abandon the neat but wrong solution of assuming that everyone is rational and markets work perfectly. The vision that emerges as the profession rethinks its foundations may not be all that clear; it certainly won’t be neat; but we can hope that it will have the dream sheep topics virtue of being at least partly right. Because of an editing error, an article on Page 36 this weekend about the failure of economists to essays, anticipate the latest recession misquotes the economist John Maynard Keynes, who compared the financial markets of the 1930s to do androids dream of electric topics, newspaper beauty contests in which readers tried to correctly pick all six eventual winners. Keynes noted that a competitor did not have to pick “those faces which he himself finds prettiest, but those that he thinks likeliest to catch the fancy of the other competitors.” He did not say, “nor even those that he thinks likeliest to course, catch the fancy of other competitors.” Paul Krugman is a Times Op-Ed columnist and winner of the topics 2008 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Science. His latest book is essays, “The Return of Depression Economics and the Crisis of 2008.”
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The principles you learn in this class should benefit you not only in subsequent courses in the University, but also in do androids essay, your career and in your life as a citizen in a democratic society. To improve your ability to write effective public speeches. Civil Services Times Essay Book. This will engage you in the full process of speech composition, including the following: Selecting, narrowing, and focusing topics Generating researching materials Adapting the do androids of electric essay topic and research materials to the specific audience being addressed Supporting ideas with evidence and reasoning Organizing the message for application effective communication Preparing and revising drafts of the speech Expressing yourself accurately, clearly, vividly, and appropriately Using correct grammar, punctuation, spelling, etc. To improve your ability to deliver effective public speeches. This will engage you in activities such as the following: Understanding the nature of speech anxiety and how to deal with it Learning the vocal principles of effective speech delivery Learning the nonverbal principles of effective speech delivery Generating speaking notes from a full speech manuscript Rehearsing the do androids dream of electric sheep topics speech prior to final presentation Using visual aids to reinforce and clarify the verbal message To improve your ability to media think critically and to apply the skills of critical thinking to the analysis of dream of electric essay topics written and application college essay writing, oral texts.
This will engage you in activities such as the following: Distinguishing main points from minor points in written and of electric sheep, oral discourse Gauging the credibility of service argumentative essay sources and the reliability of claims in supporting materials Judging the soundness of evidence in public discourse Assessing the validity of reasoning in public discourse To improve your ability to listen effectively to public speeches. This will engage you in activities such as the following: Distinguishing among the introduction, body, and conclusion of a public speech Focusing on a speaker's ideas rather than being diverted by his or her delivery Listening for the main points and supporting materials of a speaker's message Developing note-taking skills Preparing written analyses of classroom speeches To improve your ability to do androids dream essay utilize research skills and service essay, strategies. This will engage you in activities such as the following: Developing skills of information acquisition, including interviewing, writing away for of electric essay information, conducting library research, creating a research bibliography, and taking research notes efficiently Thinking critically and creatively about materials acquired from print and electronic sources. Stephen E. Lucas, The Art of Public Speaking , 12th ed. (New York: McGraw-Hill, 2014). Stephen E. Lucas and Sarah Jedd, Speech Composition Resources: Communication Arts 100 Course Book , 15th ed. Essay. (New York: McGraw-Hill, 2014). Rebecca Howard, Writing Matters . (New York: McGraw-Hill, 2010). A two- to three-minute speech introducing yourself or a classmate. Your instructor will give you the dream essay topics specific details for this assignment. But be sure to essays construct a speech that explains some aspect of your (or your classmate's) personality, background, beliefs, or aspirations. This speech is to be written in of electric essay, manuscript form and is designed to fulfill two purposes.
The first is to give you a brief, initial exposure to speaking before an photographer, audience. The second is to provide a piece of original prose that can be used to help diagnose your strengths and weaknesses as a writer. Do your best to express yourself clearly and essay topics, concisely. Make sure your ideas are clearly organized and that you proofread the manuscript carefully to an interim report for a eliminate errors in spelling, grammar, punctuation, etc. When you are writing your speech, it is important to keep focused on introducing yourself (or your classmate) to the rest of the class. If you are directed to of electric essay begin with an application course, article or an object, use it only as a starting point to explain something of consequence about you (or your classmate). The more creative your speech, the more successful it is likely to be.
A typed manuscript of the speech (two copies) is due on the assigned day. When you type your manuscript—and all assignments for this course—double space and use 11- to 12-point type, with one-inch margins on all sides. A seven-minute speech informing the audience about an object, concept, process, or event. The speech should follow the guidelines for effective informative discourse presented in Chapter 15 of dream essay The Art of Public Speaking . Use of essay nation a visual aid is required. A typed full-sentence preparation outline of the speech, including bibliography, is due both on do androids paper and as email attachment approximately one week before the speech is essays, presented in class. A final, revised outline is due on the day the do androids sheep essay speech is delivered.
Again, students are required to turn in a paper copy and to upload the final outline. The speech is to be delivered extemporaneously from a speaking outline. A nine-minute speech designed to persuade the audience for or against a question of policy. In the speech, you may seek either passive agreement or immediate action from the audience. In either case, you should be sure to deal with all three basic issues of policy speeches—need, plan and practicality—and to in pakistan employ the methods of persuasion discussed in Chapter 17 of The Art of Public Speaking . This speech will require considerable research and dream essay topics, skillful use of supporting materials. Special emphasis should be given to evidence and reasoning in constructing persuasive arguments. A typed full-sentence preparation outline of the how to an interim for a project speech, including bibliography, is due approximately one week before the speech is presented in class.
A final, revised outline is due on the day the do androids of electric sheep essay topics speech is delivered. As with all speech assignments, students should turn in how to an interim for a, an electronic version as well as a paper copy. Dream Of Electric Sheep Essay. The speech is to be delivered extemporaneously from service argumentative essay a speaking outline. In addition, as part of the do androids dream essay persuasive speech assignment, you are required to construct an audience-analysis questionnaire in which you seek to gauge the knowledge, interest, and attitudes of your classmates with regard to your speech topic. Application Essay. As explained in Chapter 6 of The Art of Public Speaking , these questionnaires should use a blend of fixed-alternative, scale, and open-ended questions. After you have tabulated the results of your questionnaire, you should use those results to help adapt your speech to the knowledge, interests, and attitudes of your audience. This does not mean you should compromise your beliefs to get a favorable response. Nor does it mean you should use devious, unethical tactics to persuade your listeners.
You can remain true to dream sheep essay yourself and to the principles of ethical speechmaking while simultaneously seeking to make your ideas as clear, appropriate, and convincing as possible. A four- to five-minute speech paying tribute to a person, a group of people, an institution, or an idea. The subject may be historical or contemporary, famous or obscure. In writing this speech, you should seek to use language creatively and imaginatively so as to invest the topic with dignity, meaning, and honest emotion. This speech will be delivered from how to write an interim report project manuscript rather than from a speaking outline. Note: Students must complete all four major speech assignments in order to dream pass the essays course. Throughout the semester, there will be periodic written homework assignments in which you work with the do androids sheep essay principles of building nation speech composition presented in of electric topics, the textbooks. These assignments are due in class on the assigned day and will constitute a portion of your semester grade. Late homework assignments will not be accepted. Peer Speech Assessments. As the nation semester progresses, you will be assigned to write a two-page typed assessment of a speech by dream of electric essay topics, one of your classmates during the informative and persuasive units.
These assessments are due in class on the assigned day and will constitute a portion of your semester grade. As with other assignments, speech assessments are expected to building nation be carefully written and to of electric essay topics be free of errors in spelling, punctuation, grammar, etc. As with other assignments, assessment papers should be submitted as email attachment as well as in how to write report project, paper form. One of the most effective ways to become a better public speaker is to view your speeches on videotape and to engage in serious, objective self-assessment of those speeches. After the of electric essay topics speech, you will view your recording on Learn@UW and prepare a two-page typed self-assessment evaluating your performance on that speech and explaining the major items you want to work especially hard on in your next speech. As with other written assignments, self-assessments should be thoughtfully composed, clearly expressed, and carefully proofread. Self-assessments are due in in pakistan, class (and as a Learn@UW upload) as assigned by your instructor and will constitute a portion of your semester grade. Communication Arts 100 will have two midterms and a final examination. The midterms will be primarily objective (multiple-choice and do androids dream of electric sheep, short-answer) and will test your command of the principles, concepts, and skills presented in the textbooks and photographer essays, discussed in class. The final exam will require you to analyze a speech and to answer a series of essay questions about it.
Please note : Your instructor will notify you of the scheduled time for the final exam. The exam will be given at this time only . In keeping with University policy, there will be no early or late exams. If you have travel (or other) plans that conflict with the scheduled examination date, you need to of electric essay change your plans or to take the course a different semester. Final grades will be calculated according to the following scale: At the end of the civil services times course, each student in dream sheep essay topics, Communication Arts 100 will submit a digital portfolio of her or his work across the entire semester.
The following items are to be included in the portfolio: Introductory Speech (initial version and revised manuscript) Informative Speech (preparation outline and course essay writing, final outline) Persuasive Speech (preparation outline and final outline) Commemorative Speech (initial version and final manuscript) Peer Speech Assessments and Self-Assessments. Failure to turn in a complete portfolio will result in a penalty on your final grade. Because participation is a central aspect of Communication Arts 100, regular and punctual attendance is vital. Therefore, for each absence beyond three (two for classes that meet twice a week) you will incur a significant penalty on your final grade. You are expected to attend class without exception on those days when assignments are due. If you fail to show up on a day when you are assigned to do androids dream of electric topics speak, you will receive an “F” on that assignment. You are responsible for all assignments given or due on photographer a day you are absent. If you miss class, contact your instructor or a classmate as soon as possible to find out what you have missed. Any absences that are excused by the University (for example, religious holidays or varsity sports events) must be reported to your instructor in writing during the first two weeks of class in order to be recognized as excused.
Your instructor may provide additional information about attendance requirements. Academic Misconduct and Plagiarism. Plagiarism is a grave offense with serious consequences. Webster's New Collegiate Dictionary defines “plagiarize” as to do androids of electric topics steal and pass off as one's own the ideas or words of essay another or to present as new and original an idea or product derived from an existing source. The following are some of the do androids of electric essay scenarios in which a student might be charged with academic misconduct in Communication Arts 100: Delivering all or a portion of another student's speech as if it were your own. Failing to in pakistan essay cite sources of ideas, paraphrases, or quotations on your speech outline or during your oral presentation. Working with someone else in of electric topics, the course to essays produce one speech that is delivered by do androids dream, both you and that other person in essay building nation, different sections. Do Androids Sheep Essay Topics. Providing another student with a copy of a speech to deliver. Students found guilty of academic misconduct will receive an “F” on the assignment and a letter concerning the affair will be forwarded to the Dean of Students for placement in the student's University file.
More than one episode of academic misconduct during a student’s career can result in essay, expulsion from the University. If academic misconduct in Communication Arts 100 is discovered after a student has completed the course, the penalties may be levied retroactively, in do androids dream sheep topics, which case the reason for the penalty will become part of the student’s permanent transcript.